![]() And even 21-49 daily wishlists has a pretty large variance (17x). (A sobering stat, albeit from a smaller sample size.)īut how about the ranges? As you can see, the lower wishlist tiers are all over the place, with ‘min to max’ sales variances between 15x and 60x. And it’s interesting that no game with less than 10 organic daily wishlists got more than 3,000 units sold for launch week, I think. So - more organic daily wishlists make for better median unit sales, sure. Here’s all the results we got for games with more than 50,000 wishlists* at launch, for context: But frankly, it’s still fairly all over the place. ![]() ![]() We still think it’s possible to juke your way to 10-20k Steam wishlists if you a) have your game on the site for a longer period of time b) release multiple demos, and c) appear in a bunch of pre-release ‘features’ - and maybe even get in Popular Upcoming too.Īnd if you have 30k, 50k, or even 100k wishlists at launch? A bunch of players cared about you, independently of all of the marketing beats you had. We do have a relatively small amount of sample points here, of course. This is not amazing, but slightly better correlated - in our semi-professional view. But the maximum is closer to 5x or 6x the minimum. You can still get ‘disappointing’ conversion rates - there’s a title in there with 85,000 wishlists that only sold 3,000 copies during launch week, for example. (The maximum sales unit result is often 10x the minimum and the biggest range - for 10k to 20k wishlists - has the maximum sales as 70x the minimum, youch.)īut for games with more than 20,000 Steam launch wishlists, things seem to narrow a bit. What’s interesting here, if you look at ranges? Well, for games that have anything up to 20,000 wishlists at launch, you get an incredibly wide range of results, when excluding the top & bottom extreme outliers. (You may have been aware, but this is further confirmation.) Median unit sales for different amounts of wishlists? So it seems like the correlation is very loose across a large number of games, and you should not ‘take your wishlists to the bank’. In this case, the highest likely result is 60+ times the lowest! the highest likely result is 3 times the lowest. This is a crazily high range, given that the other things we survey - like Week 1: Year 1 revenue multiples or even Steam units sold compared to number of reviews - are often within a ‘3-fold’ range - i.e. So that’s good news! But we really want to drill down on the possible range, because Week 1 sales on Steam span anything from 1.5% to 100+% percent of launch wishlists. If you look at the two ‘battletested’ spreadsheets we published recently - from GameDiscoverCo and Fellow Traveller - both of these use 0.2 (aka 20%) sales as the most obvious option - one for Week 1, one for Month 1. The above graph is the full data set from our new survey, in ascending order. On a broad basis, the answer we get this time is the same - a game’s first week unit sales have a median of 0.2x its total Steam wishlists at launch. You may recall we surveyed this correlation for all ages of Steam games back in June 2020. Steam wishlists compared to sales - does it track? Initial sales compared to Steam wishlists at launch - is there a provable relationship? And our next survey results are looking at something everyone wants to know about. Our first results from this data examined ‘long tail’ revenue for your Steam game, with some very useful top-line estimates. For those who missed it, we fielded an anonymous survey in August that got more than 75 responses from Steam devs/publishers, all for newer games that launched in 2019, 2020, or 2021. Welcome to the second free GameDiscoverCo newsletter of the week - and this time, we’re back looking at our Steam survey data again. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |